BRICS at a Crossroads: Putin's Vision for a Multipolar World

In a significant meeting with media representatives from BRICS nations, Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined his vision for a rapidly changing global landscape. The gathering, held on 18 October 2024 at Novo-Ogaryovo in the Moscow Region, brought together journalists from Brazil, Egypt, India, China, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, and South Africa, alongside Russian media mogul Dmitry Kiselev.

The Rise of New Power Centres

Putin's discourse centred on the emergence of new global power centres, with BRICS nations at the forefront of this shift. The Russian leader emphasised that this transformation is primarily driven by economic growth within these countries, coupled with a distinctive "non-Western" approach to international relations.

"The main feature [of the changing world] is the formation of new centres of development," Putin stated, adding that this growth "will objectively take place primarily in BRICS countries." This assertion is backed by compelling economic data: since 1992, BRICS nations have doubled their share of global GDP, surpassing the G7 bloc. Projections suggest this gap will continue to widen, with BRICS expected to further outpace the G7 by 2028.

However, Putin was quick to clarify that BRICS is not an anti-Western coalition. Quoting the Indian Prime Minister, he stressed, "BRICS is not an anti-Western association, it's just 'non-Western'." This nuanced positioning reflects the bloc's desire to create an alternative pole of influence without direct confrontation with established Western powers.

BRICS Expansion: A Delicate Balance

The recent expansion of BRICS to include new members has significantly bolstered the bloc's global influence. Now boasting ten members, BRICS finds itself at a critical juncture, with its increased prominence attracting interest from other nations eager to join.

Putin highlighted the need for careful consideration regarding future expansion. While the growth in membership has undoubtedly enhanced BRICS' global standing, there's an implicit recognition that unchecked expansion could dilute the bloc's effectiveness or lead to internal discord.

Economic Cooperation: De-dollarisation and Beyond

A key focus of Putin's address was the ongoing economic cooperation within BRICS, with particular emphasis on de-dollarisation efforts. The Russian leader revealed that 95% of Russia's foreign trade now occurs in national currencies, with an impressive 95% of its trade with China conducted in rubles and yuan.

This shift away from the US dollar is not merely a reaction to Western sanctions, as Putin explained: "We did not refuse to use the dollar as a universal currency, we were denied its use." This forced adaptation has accelerated BRICS' efforts to develop alternative financial mechanisms.

Putin outlined several initiatives in this vein, including:

1. The development of a BRICS payment system analogous to SWIFT

2. Exploration of digital currency usage for investment and trade

3. A cautious approach to the possibility of a unified BRICS currency

Particularly intriguing was Putin's proposal to explore digital currencies as a "non-inflationary" instrument controlled by BRICS institutions. This initiative, he suggested, could particularly benefit developing economies within the bloc.

Cultural Exchange: Building Trust and Understanding

Beyond economic cooperation, Putin stressed the importance of strengthening cultural ties among BRICS nations. He proposed various initiatives, including joint film festivals, theatrical collaborations, and youth exchange programmes. These cultural exchanges, Putin argued, are crucial for fostering mutual understanding and trust among member states.

Addressing Global Conflicts: BRICS as a Mediator?

A significant portion of the meeting was dedicated to discussing BRICS' potential role in resolving global conflicts. Putin emphasised the bloc's commitment to dialogue and diplomacy, particularly regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

The Russian leader highlighted the potential mediator roles of Saudi Arabia and India in these conflicts, suggesting that BRICS could serve as a neutral platform for peace negotiations. This positioning aligns with the bloc's desire to be seen as a constructive force in global affairs, distinct from Western-led initiatives.

The Ukraine Question

Inevitably, the discussion turned to the situation in Ukraine. Putin reiterated Russia's willingness to return to negotiations, stating, "We are ready to return [to negotiations]. It was not us who broke off the negotiations." He referenced a document signed in Istanbul as a potential basis for talks, while emphasising the need for long-term security guarantees for Russia.

However, Putin's tone hardened when discussing the territories currently under dispute: "The territories for which our guys are fighting on the battlefield are our territories. These are the Luhansk People's Republic, the Donetsk People's Republic, the Zaporizhzhia region and the Kherson region." This statement underscores the significant challenges that lie ahead for any potential peace process.

Nuclear Concerns and Provocations

Putin expressed strong concerns about potential nuclear provocations, particularly regarding Ukraine. He condemned any attempts at Ukrainian nuclear weapon development, describing it as a dangerous provocation and emphasising Russia's commitment to preventing such a scenario.

This rhetoric highlights the delicate balance of power in the region and the potential for escalation if nuclear ambitions are pursued by any party.